Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
